DATASET
Class-1 nickel supply and demand · 2020–2030
Dataset v1 · 20 April 2026 · CC-BY-4.0 · Synthesis of INSG, IEA WEO 2025, IRENA H2 2024, Wood Mackenzie 2025.
Figures in kilotonnes (kt). Class-1 supply denotes material of ≥99.8 % Ni suitable for battery precursor, alloying and precision applications; does not include ferronickel or nickel pig iron. Balance column is Class-1 supply minus total demand.
| Year | Class-1 supply | Battery | Hydrogen | Stainless | Defence/alloy | Semi | Other | Total demand | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1240 | 138 | 4 | 1480 | 180 | 11 | 95 | 1908 | -668 |
| 2021 | 1310 | 203 | 6 | 1530 | 192 | 13 | 98 | 2042 | -732 |
| 2022 | 1400 | 305 | 9 | 1585 | 210 | 15 | 102 | 2226 | -826 |
| 2023 | 1510 | 410 | 14 | 1640 | 226 | 18 | 106 | 2414 | -904 |
| 2024 | 1640 | 520 | 23 | 1705 | 244 | 22 | 110 | 2624 | -984 |
| 2025 | 1780 | 640 | 38 | 1770 | 265 | 27 | 115 | 2855 | -1075 |
| 2026 | 1920 | 780 | 62 | 1835 | 288 | 33 | 121 | 3119 | -1199 |
| 2027 | 2060 | 925 | 96 | 1900 | 312 | 41 | 127 | 3401 | -1341 |
| 2028 | 2200 | 1085 | 142 | 1965 | 338 | 51 | 133 | 3714 | -1514 |
| 2029 | 2340 | 1260 | 205 | 2030 | 366 | 63 | 139 | 4063 | -1723 |
| 2030 | 2490 | 1460 | 294 | 2095 | 396 | 78 | 145 | 4468 | -1978 |
Balance chart
Absolute annual Class-1 Ni shortfall, 2020–2030 (all values negative).
Notes
- Hydrogen demand assumes Ni-mesh electrolyser share rising from 4 % to 28 % of cumulative installed capacity.
- Reported "nickel surpluses" typically refer to Class-2 material (NPI, ferronickel) which cannot substitute for precision applications.
- Figures are GTX projections synthesised from INSG monthly bulletins, IEA WEO 2025 SDS pathway, and publicly-available Wood Mackenzie 2025 briefing.
Sources & references
- IEA, World Energy Outlook 2025 (SDS). iea.org
- International Nickel Study Group, World Nickel Statistics monthly bulletin 2025. insg.org
- Wood Mackenzie, Nickel Market Outlook — April 2025. woodmac.com
- IRENA, Green Hydrogen Cost Reduction 2030. irena.org